A resilient international supply chain is one that keeps goods flowing when a supplier, a port, a route or a rule changes, and recovers quickly when it cannot. The word is used loosely, so this guide gives it a working meaning for an importer buying from China: how long you can keep supplying customers when the usual route fails, and how long it takes to restore the flow. It sets out five layers of resilience, a worked example that compares days of stock cover with days needed to recover, the evidence that 2026 has given about how quickly conditions change, and a short scorecard you can use on your own supply chain.
For stress tests, see stress-testing supply chain resilience. For sourcing, see multi-origin sourcing beyond China.
What 2026 Has Shown About Change
Maersk's advisories give a dated record of how conditions moved between March and October 2026.
- On 24 March 2026, Maersk's Middle East situation overview described strikes at ports and landside around the Strait of Hormuz, said the strait was likely to remain closed to commercial cargo vessel transits and said that fuel supply disruption had made an Emergency Bunker Surcharge necessary. It listed the solutions it offered customers: change of destination, temporary storage or return to origin, landbridge solutions, air solutions and visibility tools. Its advisory page on operations through the Strait of Hormuz lists operational updates numbered up to 51 by 7 October 2026.
- On 19 October 2026, Maersk's announcement on the Gemini network followed an earlier structural rerouting of Asia to Mediterranean services through the Suez Canal, and its Asia Pacific market update of 7 October said that four more services were moving to routing via Suez instead of around the Cape of Good Hope.
- The same update said that port operations in Asia affected by seasonal weather were recovering, with schedules taking time to normalise.
You do not need to be on those routes to learn from them. The lesson from these Maersk notices is that routes, costs and schedules were revised several times in one year, and that this carrier answered with a menu of contingency options. A shipper that has thought through its own menu in advance can act on the same day.
Layer 1: See
Resilience starts with knowing your exposure. List each product, its supplier, the port of loading, the carrier, the port of discharge, the clearance point and the inland route. Mark every point where one failure would stop supply. Then add visibility so that you learn of trouble early, as our guide to shipment tracking and supply chain visibility explains.
Layer 2: Absorb
Buffers give you time. The useful question is not how much stock you hold but how many days of sales it covers, compared with how many days it would take to restore supply. Use two numbers for each product:
- Cover days: stock on hand and in transit, divided by daily sales.
- Recovery days: the time needed to bring supply back through an alternative route, port, mode or supplier.
If cover days are fewer than recovery days, you will run out before the fix arrives. The made-up example below shows how to read the gap.
| Item | Product A (made up) |
|---|---|
| Daily sales | 50 units |
| Stock on hand and in transit | 600 units |
| Cover days | 600 divided by 50, which is 12 days |
| Recovery days through the alternative route | 18 days |
| Gap | 18 minus 12, which is 6 days |
| Units short if nothing changes | 6 times 50, which is 300 units |
There are two ways to close the gap. You can hold 300 more units, or you can shorten recovery to 12 days by qualifying the alternative in advance, for example with approved samples, a booked rate and filed documents. To compare the two fixes, put made-up costs on them. Holding 300 more units at 50 each ties up 15,000, and at a holding cost of 20% a year that is 3,000 a year. Preparing the alternative, for instance approved samples, a booked rate agreement and filed documents, might cost 1,200 once plus 300 a year in upkeep, which is 1,500 in the first year against 3,000 a year for the extra stock. With numbers like these, preparation is cheaper to carry than stock, but your own numbers may say otherwise, so compare before you decide. Our guide to just-in-time vs just-in-case inventory strategies covers the stock side.
Customs is part of the arithmetic. The National Time Release Study 2025 sampled bills of entry filed from 1 to 7 January 2025 and found that only 51.76% of import bills of entry at seaports were released within the national target of 48 hours, and that the average was 79 hours 4 minutes. It also found that a bill of entry with a single query averaged nearly 170 hours at seaports and one with multiple queries over 256 hours. Plan the clearance step on the average and on the long tail, not on the target.
Layer 3: Flex
Flexibility means having options that work without redesigning the supply chain.
- Suppliers: a second source, even with a small share, as in our guide to sourcing components overseas.
- Ports and routes: more than one port of loading and discharge, and an agreed rule for when to switch.
- Modes: a way to move a priority part by air when the sea route is late. Our guide to air freight vs sea freight gives the tests.
- Contracts: terms that let you change quantities or dates without penalty.
The Supply Chain Resilience Initiative announced by the trade ministers of India, Japan and Australia on 27 April 2021, in a statement published by the Press Information Bureau, points the same way. It noted the importance of risk management and continuity plans, listed support for digital technology and for trade and investment diversification as possible policy measures, and set as initial projects the sharing of best practices and investment promotion and buyer-seller matching events to explore diversification.
Layer 4: Recover
Recovery is a set of decisions made before they are needed. Write a one-page playbook with:
- Triggers: what event starts the playbook, such as a cancelled sailing, a port closure or a customs hold.
- Owners: who decides, who calls the supplier and the forwarder, and who tells customers.
- Menu: the options you have prepared, adapted from the carrier's list: change the destination, hold the cargo in temporary storage, return it to origin, use a land bridge or another route, or send a priority part by air.
- Money: the cost limit within which the owner can act without further approval, and the insurance that applies. See cargo insurance for China-origin shipments.
- Documents: the classification, licences and certificates that let you switch route without delay.
Layer 5: Learn
After every disruption, record what happened, how long it lasted, what it cost and what you will change. Keep each entry to a few lines: the date, the event, the cause, the days lost, the cost and the change made. Update the exposure list and the playbook. For a register of events and a quarterly routine, see how manufacturers can reduce supply chain disruptions.
A Resilience Scorecard
Answer yes or no for each of your main products.
- Do you know the cover days and the recovery days?
- Is there a second supplier, route or mode that has been qualified or tested?
- Are the documents for the alternative ready?
- Can you see the status of the shipment, including the customs step?
- Does a written playbook name the triggers and the owners?
- Have you walked the team through it in the past twelve months?
Each no is a gap to close. Start with the product for which cover days are shortest.
Common Mistakes
- Counting stock but not the time needed to recover supply.
- Qualifying an alternative route or supplier and never testing it with a small shipment.
- Keeping the playbook in one person's head.
- Treating a carrier's list of contingency options as a plan, when it is only a menu to choose from.
- Leaving documents, licences and certificates for the alternative until the day they are needed.
Build Resilience With RR Brothers and Logistics
RR Brothers and Logistics arranges sea freight and air freight between China and India and handles customs clearance. Tell us which products are critical and we will discuss alternative routes, modes and documents with you.
Frequently Asked Questions
One that keeps goods flowing when a supplier, port, route or rule changes, and recovers quickly when it cannot. A practical test compares the days of stock cover with the days needed to restore supply.
Cover days are the stock on hand and in transit divided by daily sales. Recovery days are the time needed to restore supply through an alternative route, port, mode or supplier. If cover is shorter than recovery, supply runs out first.
Prepare a menu of options in advance. Maersk's March 2026 overview listed change of destination, temporary storage or return to origin, landbridge solutions, air solutions and visibility tools, which a shipper can adapt.
In its sample of bills filed 1 to 7 January 2025, the National Time Release Study 2025 found that 51.76% of bills of entry at seaports were released within 48 hours, with an average of 79 hours 4 minutes, and nearly 170 hours for a bill with a single query.
India, Japan and Australia noted the importance of risk management and continuity plans and listed support for digital technology and for trade and investment diversification as possible measures.
After every disruption and at fixed intervals, for example each quarter, updating the exposure list, the playbook and the documents for alternatives.
Sources
- Maersk: Middle East situation overview (24 March 2026)
- Maersk: Operations through Strait of Hormuz (advisory page, updated 7 October 2026)
- Maersk: Further enhancements to the Gemini network (19 October 2026)
- Maersk: Asia Pacific market update, October 2026 (7 October 2026)
- CBIC: National Time Release Study 2025 (released 20 June 2025)
- PIB: Australia-India-Japan Trade Ministers' Joint Statement on Launch of Supply Chain Resilience initiative (27 April 2021)
This article is general information, not legal, tax or customs advice. Rules, rates and procedures change; confirm current requirements with the relevant authority or a licensed customs professional before you ship. Regulatory references were checked against the official sources listed above on 26 October 2026.
Image credits: header photo by Haris Illahi on Unsplash; photo by Kyle Glenn on Unsplash. Used under the Unsplash License.
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