How Geopolitical Changes Can Affect Global Shipping Routes

Geopolitical changes can affect shipping routes because a route is a chain of choices and an event can break any link: a passage that ships avoid, a port that stops taking bookings, a fuel supply that dries up or an airspace that closes. For a shipper the result can be a longer voyage, a new charge, a changed schedule or a different gateway. This guide uses documented records from 2025 and 2026, mainly UNCTAD's Review of Maritime Transport 2025 and Maersk's notices, to show six ways a route can change, what spills over to an importer on a China to India lane, and a simple method for scoring your own lanes. We describe what the sources say and make no forecast.

For the wider risk picture, see our guides to geopolitical risk and supply chain resilience and how to build a more resilient international supply chain.

Six Ways an Event Changes a Route

What UNCTAD Records

The Review of Maritime Transport 2025 opens with the statement that not since the closure of the Suez Canal in 1967 had there been such sustained disruption to the arteries of global commerce, and that ships which once transited the Red Sea in days now sail for weeks around the Cape of Good Hope. It says persistent geopolitical tensions and trade policy changes have altered shipping patterns, with many routes redirected away from traditional chokepoints, and that supply chains are increasingly diversified, with more complex networks of origin and destination emerging to manage uncertainty. It adds that the Strait of Hormuz is a passage for about 34% of global seaborne exports of oil, and that the extra distances raise transport costs, delays and greenhouse gas emissions.

What Maersk Recorded in 2026

Maersk's Middle East overview of 24 March 2026 described strikes at ports and landside around the Strait of Hormuz, said the strait was likely to remain closed to commercial cargo vessel transits and said air corridors across the region were expected to continue experiencing disruption from airspace closures affecting several Gulf states. It added that the situation and the network adjustments had ripple effects on the rest of the global network and that it takes time for operations to settle. Its solutions for customers included change of destination, temporary storage or return to origin, landbridge solutions and air solutions.

By Middle East Operational Update 51 of 8 October 2026, Maersk listed suspended bookings for several cargo types to and from Gulf ports, an Emergency Freight rate per container on cargo to or from several Gulf countries (USD 1,800 for a 20-foot dry container, USD 3,000 for a 40-foot dry container and USD 3,800 for reefer, special and dangerous goods containers) and the Hormuz transit fee above. It also described vessel congestion, high yard utilisation and extended truck waiting times at Khor Fakkan, and changes to the final port of destination for some shipments.

On the other side of the network, Maersk's Asia Pacific update of 7 October 2026 said four more services were moving to routing via the Suez Canal instead of around the Cape of Good Hope, and its advisory of 19 October 2026 added a new service and changes to three others on Asia to Europe and Mediterranean loops, with first sailings in mid to late November. The Asia Pacific update also said, on air freight, that fewer connections through parts of the Middle East had shifted some cargo flows to alternative routings, and that space and transit times could differ considerably by origin and lane.

What Spills Over to a China to India Importer

A direct sailing from a Chinese port to an Indian port does not need to use the Suez Canal or the Strait of Hormuz, so the effects arrive indirectly. These are the channels that the records above support:

• Fuel and surcharges. The Emergency Bunker Surcharge notice says it applies globally without exception from 25 March 2026. See how fuel prices affect international freight costs.
• Network reliability and equipment. Maersk said disruption has ripple effects on the rest of the global network.
• Air routings. Space and transit times can differ by origin and lane.
• Counterparty exposure. If a supplier, a transhipment point or a customer's destination sits in an affected area, your shipment does not need to pass through it to be affected.

Score Your Own Lanes

List each lane, the passages and ports it uses and the alternatives. Then score three things from 1 (low) to 3 (high): how many of your shipments depend on one passage or hub, how few alternatives exist, and how many days a reroute would add. The days are the part you can test with a made-up example: if an alternative route adds 10 days to a 22-day voyage, the voyage becomes 32 days, which is 45% longer (10 divided by 22 is 0.45). If the cargo is worth 73,000 and holding cost is 10% a year, each day costs 20 (73,000 times 0.10 divided by 365), so the extra 10 days add 200 of holding cost before any freight surcharge. Rank the lanes by the product of the three scores and prepare the top two first.

How to Read a Carrier Notice

A notice is written for every customer in its scope, so pull out the parts that apply to you. Look for the effective date: the Emergency Bunker Surcharge notice, for example, states 25 March 2026. Look for the scope, meaning which origins, destinations and container types it covers, as in the container-type amounts in Maersk's Middle East update. Look for the amount and whether it is a launch level that can change, since the EBS notice says its levels are monitored regularly and adjusted up or down. Look for the options offered, such as the change of destination or temporary storage listed in the March overview. Finally, ask your forwarder in writing whether the notice affects your booking, because a notice about a Gulf lane does not apply to a lane that never touches the Gulf.

A Response Playbook

1. Name the trigger. For example, a carrier notice that suspends bookings, adds an emergency charge or reroutes a service.
2. Name the decision owner and the cost limit. Rerouting is a decision about money and time, so decide in advance who may approve it.
3. Keep the options current. Maersk's own list is a useful menu: change of destination, temporary storage, return to origin, a land bridge or an air solution.
4. Check documents and insurance. Ask whether your cargo cover applies on the alternative route. See our guide to cargo insurance for China-origin shipments.
5. Review after each event. Record what happened and what it cost, as our guide to supply chain risk management for China trade suggests.

Plan Alternative Routes With RR Brothers and Logistics

RR Brothers and Logistics arranges sea freight, air freight and multimodal transport from China and handles customs clearance in India. Tell us your lanes and your critical cargo and we will discuss alternative routings and the documents they need.

Frequently Asked Questions

Sources

1. UNCTAD: Review of Maritime Transport 2025
2. Maersk: Middle East situation overview (24 March 2026)
3. Maersk: Middle East Operational Update 51 (8 October 2026)
4. Maersk: Asia Pacific market update, October 2026 (7 October 2026)
5. Maersk: Further enhancements to the Gemini network (19 October 2026)

This article is general information, not legal, tax or customs advice. Rules, rates and procedures change; confirm current requirements with the relevant authority or a licensed customs professional before you ship. Regulatory references were checked against the official sources listed above on 28 October 2026.

Image credits: header photo by Barrett Ward on Unsplash; photo by Leandro Barreto on Unsplash. Used under the Unsplash License.

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